Waves in Prince William Sound: who can predict them? One minute they're coming in gently from the west, and the next minute they're roaring in through Hinchinbrook Entrance and rocking every boat in the Sound. All mariners, whether their vessel is large or small, can appreciate the value of accurate wave measurements, and especially accurate wave forecasts.
In December of 2004, Hurricane Ivan hit the northern shores of the Gulf of Mexico, creating waves as tall as 16 meters (about 48 feet). The waves carried oil pipes as far as 2 miles from their original locations and caused massive mudslides along the shore. "My preliminary data suggests that this was nothing less than a 10,000 year event in the Gulf of Mexico," said Vijay Panchang, head of the Department of Maritime Systems Engineering at Texas A&M University. In the Gulf of Alaska, waves have been measured at almost 17 meters - the tallest waves ever measured by NDBC buoys.
Wave simulations in the Gulf of Alaska now generate relatively coarse scale forecasts that are of little value at the scale of PWS. Using SWAN (Simulating WAves in the Nearshore) modeling, Panchang and colleagues have been forecasting waves around the country up to 48 hours in advance based on measurements from NDBC buoys. Placing this modeling system in PWS allows for forecasts that are accurate to within 500 meters. The SWAN model was developed in Holland and is being used in more than 50 countries to predict wave heights in nearshore and inland waters. It has been used to accurately predict waves in the Gulf of Maine for nearly two years.
The SWAN model uses data collected from the three NDBC buoys in PWS, as well as the Cape Suckling and Cape Cleare buoys, to generate a comprehensive forecast model for the entire Sound. The model runs every twelve hours to track and predict wave heights. In addition, new technology is being developed that will allow for real-time wave forecasts that are nearly exact for up to six hours at a time. Once it is fully developed, this technology can easily be added to the SWAN modeling system.
In the summer of 2005 the NDBC buoys tracked waves in PWS as high as six to seven meters during peak wave periods. Accurately forecasting these tall waves, or waves of any magnitude, could help prevent future disasters. It could also help researchers determine the importance of waves in sediment transfer, and especially how the movement of sediments affects marine life around the Sound.
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