Our Questions

How do weather and currents influence Prince William Sound?

The circulation and water mass properties of Prince William Sound largely reflect ocean and atmospheric forcing. Atmospheric conditions are primarily established by the interaction of storms associated with the Aleutian Low with the coastal mountains surrounding the Gulf of Alaska.

Upon encountering coastal mountains, moist storm air masses are elevated and adiabatically cooled. This leads to very high rates of coastal precipitation along the coast. Sediment carried by river and glacial runoff are visible tracers of coastal currents.

Predictions  |   How well can our models predict atmospheric and oceanic water properties, wave conditions, and circulation patterns in different areas of the Sound?

Improvements  |  Has the circulation model forecast skill for the central basin improved from those in 2004?

Expenses  |   What are the costs and benefits of the Alaska Ocean Observing System for oil spill trajectory modeling?

How will we answer these questions?

Over the course of two to four weeks, we will quantitatively evaluate the performance of forecast models in Prince William Sound including the atmospheric (RAMS and WRF) and ocean circulation (ROMS) models, the SWAN wave model, and the GNOME oil spill trajectory model.

We will evaluate the performance of these models by comparing them with:

observational data collected during a four-week field experiment in August 2007, and
how well the models performed during the 2004 experiment.

We will deploy, retrieve, and redeploy drifting buoys.

We will focus on validating how well the models can forecast surface and deeper currents in the central basin, so the majority of drifter deployments will occur within the field of view of existing high frequency radar. We will deploy additional buoys around the edges of the Sound to validate the speed and direction of surface currents forced predominantly by fresh water runoff.

We will track drifting objects and "spills."

We will follow the fate of Lagrangian drifters that mimic Coast Guard Search and Rescue targets as well as oil spill trajectories.

We will measure ocean waves.

We will deploy wave gauges at locations of specific interest to wave modelers.

What’s next?

The outcome of these analyses will help to evaluate the effectiveness of high-resolution numerical models at different spatial scales and provide some guidelines on the utility and limitations of ocean observing systems for oil spill response activities.

Photo: Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council.

The Alaska Ocean Observing System is building a network of observation platforms and forecast models. The goal of this network is to provide information products and tools to improve our understanding of Alaska’s ocean ecosystem and allow us to make better decisions about our use of the marine environment.

AOOS is affiliated with the Integrated Ocean Observing System and the
University of Alaska Fairbanks School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences.
UAF is an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer and educational institution.